What does 1:10^17 mean?
I recall a while back JM posted a site that computed the cumulative probability (likelihood) represented by the life of Jesus Christ in the context of the fulfillment of prophesy.
One whole book on this topic is that by Prof. Peter Stoner "Science Speaks".
PETER W. STONER, M.S.
Chairman of the Departments of Mathematics and Astronomy at Pasadena City College until 1953; Chairman of the science division, Westmont College, 1953-57; Professor Emeritus of Science, Westmont College; Professor Emeritus of Mathematics and Astronomy, Pasadena City College.
Professor Stoner claims that the act of fulfilling only eight prophesies has a cumulative liklihood of only one chance in 10^17.
I don't know about you but I find this really convincing. Am I wrong about this? What are the arguments against this?
P.S. Here are the eight prophecies:
- Messiah is to be born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2; fulfilled in Matt. 2:1-7; John 7:42; Luke 2:47).
- Messiah is to be preceded by a Messenger (Isaiah 40:3; Malachi 3:1; fulfilled in Matthew 3:1-3; 11:10; John 1:23; Luke 1:17).
- Messiah is to enter Jerusalem on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9; fulfilled in Luke 35-37; Matthew 21:6-11).
- Messiah is to be betrayed by a friend (Psalms 41:9; 55:12-14; fulfilled in Matthew 10:4; 26:49-50; John 13:21).
- Messiah is to be sold for 30 pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12; fulfilled in Matthew 26:15; 27:3).
- The money for which Messiah is sold is to be thrown "to the potter" in God's house (Zechariah 11:13; fulfilled in Matthew 27:5-7).
- Messiah is to be silent before His accusers (Isaiah 53:7; fulfilled in Matthew 27:12).
- Messiah is to be executed by crucifixion as a thief (Psalm 22:16; Zechariah 12:10; Isaiah 53:5,12; fulfilled in Luke 23:33; John 20:25; Matthew 27:38; Mark 15:27,28).
P.P.S If you don like these eight there are 40 others. . .
It's convincing if you believe that each prophecy was actually made long before and in reference to the Messiah and then fulfilled by Jesus. However, if you believe, then you probably don't need much convincing. On the other hand, if you don't believe, then it's probably not very convincing to you.
One could argue that the accounts of Jesus were fabricated to fit the prophecies.
One could argue that the Bible contains other prophecies that apparently were not fulfilled.
JM,
True, one could make these arguments, fabrication etc.
But, for me, the compelling part of these stats is that any given event has a reasonable probability (e.g., 1:100 etc.) and it is actually the cumulative probability this is so remarkably large.
Lately, I have been reading a good deal of "end times" prophesy from people who are largely trusted by the Church. Interestingly, as you read older books you see the trap people fall into regarding interpretation of prophesy. In particular, an honest reading of a prophesy will usually negate a prediction. In one case a priest thought WWII was the end. One can see though,within the context of the prophesies utilized, that much had to be discarded in order to make the interpetation that WWII was the end of time. People looking for an answer will find one.
Notably, however, looking retro-actively at the very very strong historical accounts (like the gospel of St. Luke) - actually the most verifiable document in all of antiquity. We see a writer with an historical purpose providing a document without much reference to prophesy.
So, in aggregate, the accounts are very credible by any standard, and the cumulative probabilities too large to actually be comprehensible.
Perhaps one could run an experiment and show the cumulative probabilities for others who said they were saviors. I think this has been done and the candidates have fallen short.
Recently, I was asked again, "How can you as a scientist believe in Jesus Christ?" OK, lots of ways to answer this and I have never turned to this statistical argument but I personally feel that it is difficult to challenge.
Certainly, failed thinking regarding statistics is common. One nice book on common probabilities and is a fun read is the book called Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos there is also a nice web site devoted to Innumeracy.
js